Getting that ‘Gut Feeling’
12 July 2007 8:41 am by Taylor Marsh
Getting that ‘Gut Feeling’ updated
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Now that the terrorist alert level has been raised to GUT by Mr. Chertoff,
which not even
the Fox “News” military analysts are buying, I’ve got to be honest.
I’m getting my own gut feeling about the newly released Iraq
Initial
Benchmark Assessment Report (pdf).
While AQI (Al Qaeda in Iraq) may not account for most of the violence in
Iraq, it is the organization responsible for the highest profile attacks,
which serve as a primary excellerant to the underlying sectarian conflict.
… …We should expect, however, that AQI will attempt to increase its tempo of
attacks as September approaches — in an effort to influence U.S. domestic
opinion about sustained U.S. engagement in Iraq. … .. (page
4)
Shorter version (well, not too short, actually – consider it a translation):
carnage coming, but it’s all about us. It has nothing to do with the internecine
conflicts raging between the main players in Iraq. Right.
The bottom line assessment: The ISF continues to show slow progress (page
5). It’s the definition of “slow” that’s the kicker or the killer,
depending on your point of view.
Rand Beers has more at NSN. “Lipstick on a pig” is how Ilan Goldenberg described it. (Graphic above is in honor of my new friends over at NSN.)
Now for the really sobering news:
Meaningful and lasting progress on national reconciliation may also
require a sustained period of reduced violence in order to build trust. For
this reason, most of the major political benchmarks identified in the legislation
— i.e., final passage of monumental pieces of legislation through Iraq’s
Council of Representatives by consensus — are lagging indicators of whether
or not the strategy is succeeding or is going to be successful. (pg.
5)
Then the Report goes on to talk about “bottom-up reconciliation”
being even more important than “top-down reconciliation.”
But wait! It gets better. It’s all our fault.
The increasing concern among Iraqi political leaders that the United States
may not have a long-term commitment to Iraq has also served in recent months
to reinforce hedging behaviors and made the hardest political bargains even
more difficult to close.
What the White House is telling us is that the Iraqis, who are nationalistic
by nature, don’t have the inspiration to reconcile their own differences because
Americans may not back them up?
Gut check analysis and final diagnosis? Queasy.
UPDATE: Priceless Keith comment on “The Gut.”
