Here it comes.

If you want to know why John McCain's presidential hopes are tanking, today
is a good example. New problems for Mr. Bush arrived today as well. Republicans
are getting the message, swallowing hard and finally facing up to reality. Today on Fox “News”
Sunday Bill Kristol even suggested that Bush might have to compromise with Democrats,
because after all he's a good commander in chief. I almost lost my breakfast. But Republicans are giving it up, one by one. Iraq has not been ours to win in a very long time. Welcome to our world.

Andrew Sullivan has been a long time critic, but today's post and column goes
a step further. Biden just may be right and get his loose federation sooner than his predicted six months.

If this war ends with a messy soft-partition, but in which various groups
of Iraqi Muslims start to take on the war against al Qaeda for their own sake,
it could still end up as a relative success. We will have precipitated a situation
in which the real war here – within Islam, between mainstream Islam and al
Qaeda – will finally be joined. We should do all we can to help from a distance,
maybe even a small distance. But this is their fight not ours. We cannot win
it; only they can. Our goal should not be our victory against al Qaeda; it
should be their victory against al Qaeda. It will only be their victory if
we are clearly on the road out. If that happens, we change the narrative of
this war decisively – in our favor. But indefinite occupation prevents that
scenario from taking place. Ending the occupation and winning the war, in
other words, are not opposites. They can be complements. It's a tricky process,
but by far the most feasible now on the table.

Exit and Anbar

The next comes from Rick

I have come to the conclusion over the last few days that, due to domestic
conditions here in the US and the inability of the Iraqi government and society
to deal in a timely manner with the political problems that must be solved
if Iraq is to have a viable, multi-sectarian society the United States is
on the verge of suffering a humiliating defeat in Iraq. A perfect storm of
almost non-existent public support for our war aims coupled with US pressure
on the Iraqis to shoehorn radical changes in their society, their constitution,
and their politics into an unrealistic and inevitably, an impossible time
frame will ultimately doom our efforts to take any military success achieved
via the surge and turn it into progress on the political front.

If we had 3 or 4 years and the political will to maintain troop levels where
they are now, then we would have a real chance to make the difference. But
our commitment to the military aspects of the surge will be measured in months,
not years.

Moran then quickly wrote a “clarification” post, which is defensive
when he needn't be. I say this not because he finally sees Iraq reality in his
first post or because he believes Democrats can lead on Iraq, he does not; even as we do that very thing. But because Moran got the criticism
he knew would come from his right, so he felt the need to shore up his reasoning.
He needn't have bothered. That wouldn't have kept one
from declaring “But big men don't cave in to fear and regret,
deserting even bigger men they sent off to war.”

Deserting the troops is a common charge among the wingnuts, but Moran is hardly guilty
of that, fear or regret. Self interest is a powerful motivator. Republicans better come to grips with what's
going to happen or they will see their party lying in shambles for the rest
of our adult lives. Moran is being practical. Period. Kristol showed some of that very
practicality this morning. Has a memo gone out?

Of course, all their posturing is shameless, because it's all about Bush and
their precious political party. Missed in all the Republican and further right
wingnut musings is the reality of what Iraq is doing to our national security
health. They're so caught up in Bush's legacy and what it will bring in fall
out for '08 that none of the Republicans seem to give a hoot about our force
structure collapsing and how dangerous this is for our country. Our armed forces
are in deep, deep trouble. We will be redeploying out of Iraq because our Army, Marines
and National Guard can't take the strain of Bush's unending failures as commander in chief.

The other issue is that if Republicans don't wake up they will be the party
singularly responsible for destroying our all volunteer force. If the draft
is needed the responsibility will lie with Republicans. That would be political death and finish off what Bush began with his pathetic presidency.

But when you get down to it, frankly, I don't care how or why the Republicans
and the far right wingnuts are seeing the light on Iraq, as long as they see it and soon.