Measuring the Chaos in Iraq
20 December 2006 9:28 am by Taylor Marsh
Measuring the Chaos in Iraq
Expert Guest Post by Winslow T. Wheeler, Director, Straus
Military Reform Project
The Pentagon’s new report on “Measuring
Stability and Security in Iraq” was widely covered by the press today
(12.19.06). Many of the newspaper articles described what the report
stated about the increase in violence in Iraq (summarized by the reported 22
percent increase in weekly attacks) and continuing efforts to train Iraqi security
forces (and the ongoing frustrations, such as absenteeism as high as 50 percent
when units are ordered to combat outside their domestic areas). However, most
articles did not address other deteriorating conditions in a region that is
becoming less a nation-state and more a locus for ethnic, religious, criminal,
and political conflict. That other data in the report gives the reader a sense
of what life for Iraqi citizens is like these days. Consider, for example, the
following from the DOD report:
– The victims of the increasing attacks are mostly Iraqi civilians, not “coalition”
(U.S.) military personnel.– Corruption and drug trafficking are increasing.
– “Runaway inflation” has grown 53 percent over the past year.
– Official estimates of unemployment range from 13 to 18 percent, but those
data are understood to significantly understate the problem.– Electrical power generation is approximately half of demand. It is worse
in Baghdad where civilians get power only 6 to 7 hours per day.– The government does not know how much clean water is delivered to Iraqis.
– Civilians suffering from malnutrition range from 14 to 26 percent, depending
on the province.– The numbers of refugees fleeing the violence are immense: 700,000 have
fled to Jordan; 600,000 to Syria; 100,000 to Egypt; 40,000 to Lebanon, and
54,000 to Iran.– Over 3,000 refugees per day are now appearing in Syria and Jordan.
– In the last 10 months, 460,000 Iraqis have become “internally displaced”
as they flee regional violence or are ethnically “cleansed.”– Personal loyalties, such as tribal, sectarian, or political, are growing
stronger than to Iraq as a nation.– The civilian population is losing confidence in the ability of the Iraq
government to address security problems. In August 2006, 47 percent of the
population had confidence in the ability of the government to protect citizens;
by October 2006, that had declined to 36 percent. Significantly, much of the
decline is occurring in the Shiite regions of the south of the country that
comprises 80 percent of the total population.– Sixty percent of the population believes overall conditions are worsening:
i.e. that the next DOD report will be worse.
Meanwhile, the newspapers are also reporting that the White House, and some
in Congress, are contemplating a temporary “surge” in U.S. military
deployments, numbering somewhere between 15,000 and 30,000. Perhaps more significantly,
a major target of these deployments might be the Mahdi Army, the largest Shiite
sectarian militia led by Muqtada al-Sadr, who controls a significant faction
in the Iraqi national legislature and who is one of the most politically popular
figures in Iraq.
If so, conditions are not about to improve in Iraq; the 60 percent of the Iraqi
population who believe they have not yet seen the worst appear to be prescient.
