It’s a Dud
09 October 2006 9:57 am by Taylor Marsh
It's a Dud
| via the Agonist |
That's the latest I'm hearing from all quarters. There was a seismic event, but was it nuclear? Will we ever know? As secret as North Korea is we may never find out. It's a “sub-kiliton” event, which happened because of the Bush policy of preemption. Stay tuned.
The real issue is can Pyongyang weaponize their nuclear dreams? The short answer
is no.
The real deal now is China's collapse of influence. From my friend Sean
Paul, here's the short hand Stratfor analysis:
For China, the benefits of serving as the only viable arbiter of U.S.-North
Korean negotiations have been swept away. There is no longer a negotiation.
North Korea has crossed the line, and tested a nuclear device. Now, preliminary
indications are that the test was very small. Initial Chinese unofficial estimates
put the size of the explosion at around the equivalent of 300 or so tons of
TNT. This is not far from later international estimates of around 550 tons.
Neither suggests a spectacular success — unless Pyongyang has surpassed everyone's
expectations and created a highly advanced and very small tactical nuclear
device, which is highly unlikely.
Secondly, Pyongyang no longer trusts China because of their involvement with
the U.S. and the six party talks. But China can't really do anything now because
they sure don't want a North Korean collapse, which would bring a flood of refugees
across China's border. So all China can do now is express their displeasure and stew in it.
And for all you Fox fans, which is running all North Korea — help the GOP
change the subject — all the time, there simply is no military option. Only
the lunatic fringe — see Sean Hannity — believe there is. But this is what
we've got on that score. Again, from Stratfor:
The USS Kitty Hawk is currently sitting in port at Yokosuka Naval Base, Japan.
The USS Enterprise is operating in the Arabian Sea, while the Nimitz and the
Stennis are conducting exercises off the coast of California. All are an ocean
away, and none is less than a week's transit from the region. Nevertheless,
naval cruise missiles are readily available, as are long-range strikes by
B-2A Spirit stealth bombers and B-52H Stratofortresses and B-1B Lancers currently
supporting NATO operations in Afghanistan out of Diego Garcia. A more robust
strike package would take longer to deploy.When U.S. military planners have nightmares, they have nightmares about war
with North Korea. Even the idea of limited strikes against the isolated nation
is fraught with potential escalations. The problem is the mission. A limited
attack against nuclear facilities might destabilize North Korea or lead North
Korea to the conclusion that the United States would intend regime change.
Not. Going. To. Happen.
So those of you listening to Rush have to understand one thing: He doesn't
know what he's talking about and he's blaming Clinton because he doesn't know
the facts. The U.S. is a “paper tiger,” because we don't like to “project
our power”. Ho-boy.
RUSH: In the old days we would have taken care of business to protect national
security and our priorities. We're paralyzed now, because of what people might
say. The man is clueless.
Now back to reality…
In addition, North Korea has 100 No-Dong
missiles and troops trained on Seoul, South Korea. Their armaments are in caves,
which would take a long campaign to destroy, while Seoul his hit again and again.
North Korea is the new Pakistan. Learn to love me, baby.
Now it's let's make a deal for China and the South Koreans, who are the ones who wanted to negotiate from the start. Say buh-bye to that one.
President Bush
can't do squat.
Cue arms race.
