Taylor Marsh – TaylorMarsh.com – News, Opinion and Weblog on Progressive Politics

Billmon provides the image. We'll get to
the reality in a second.

But will Republicans come out to vote?

It brings me to the rub, which was outlined by Pew at the end of June.

Democrats are more enthusiastic about the upcoming election than was the case in 2002, 1998 or especially 1994, when they were particularly ambivalent about going to vote. By comparison, far fewer Republicans say they are looking forward to voting this November than in recent midterms. Just 30% of Republicans say they are more enthusiastic about voting this year than usual, down from 44% four years ago; 41% in June 1998; and 45% prior to the 1994 midterm election. The heightened Democratic enthusiasm is particularly notable among liberal Democrats, 53% of whom are more interested in voting this year than usual. The partisan gap in enthusiasm is even visible among independents – those who lean Democratic are considerably more eager to vote than those who lean Republican. Overall, 47% of voters who plan to vote Democratic this fall say they are more enthusiastic about voting than usual, compared with just 30% of voters who plan to vote Republican. The higher level of enthusiasm among Democratic voters is linked to two underlying attitudes: anger at the president and optimism about Democrats chances in the fall. Pew Research Center

So, Democrats are hopeful and ready to vote.

Republicans are coming home to Bush, but again, will they vote in November?

A new Gallup poll shows that President Bush's approval rating has increased slightly, reaching 40 percent for the first time since the beginning of February. Fifty-five percent of those surveyed July 6-9 disapprove of his performance. Mr. Bush's approval ratings began to go down in the middle of February of this year, spiraling down to the lowest point of his presidency in early May at 31 percent. The poll also reveals that while 78 percent of Republicans approve of the job that Mr. Bush is doing, only 10 percent of Democrats do. These figures represent improvement, however, from those of early May. Then, the president's average support among members of his own party was 68 percent. … Poll: Bush Approval Rating Improves

Bush is up 10% among his base. They're coming home.

The momentum of enthusiasm is building for Democrats. But in the end there's one rule: the most committed wins.